Nothing really interesting here unless you're curious about how I think about poker hands while I'm playing them.
Normally I try to stay away from bad beat stories, but this one stung.
Context: $2 rush rebuy tournament, I bought a rebuy before playing the first hand but never busted, so I've invested $4.20, at this point average stack is about 16k chips, I have 45k chips, there are about 250 players left out of a starting field of roughly 2000, with 200 or so spots paying and top prize of something ludicrous like $3k. I've been kicking ass and taking names with a very TAG game (which works really well in big-field Rush tournaments) and have invested about 2.5 hours into the tourney at this point. If I wanted to, I could walk away from the computer and be virtually guaranteed of a modest payout (like $10 or so) without even playing anymore. Then, this happens:
# my comments are preceded with hash marks and hopefully in blue.
############
Blinds are 250/500 with 50 ante. 9 players:
Button (t26498)
SB (t18929)
Nate (BB) (t45179)
Villian1 (UTG) (t62225)
UTG+1 (t49932)
MP1 (t34285)
MP2 (t34868)
Villian2 (MP3) (t20466)
CO (t73117)
Nate's M: 37.65
# "M" is a term for how many orbits you could survive without playing (just paying the blinds and antes) before you go bust. Above 20 and you're sitting pretty, and you can afford to be a little looser in your play. Between 10-20 and you need to be a bit worried and should be playing pretty tight, below 10 and it's about time to think about "all-in or fold pre-flop" on every hand.
Preflop: Nate is BB with 8

, J
Villian1 calls t500,
3 folds, Villian2 calls t500,
2 folds, SB calls t250, Nate checks
# J8s is a decent hand but certainly not great from early position, particularly against 3 other players. If someone had raised I probably would have folded, but I'm happy to see a free flop.
Flop: (t2450) A

, 3

, 10
(4 players)
# At this point I have a draw to what is likely to be a winning flush. Since nobody raised pre-flop, I'm guessing that someone has probably paired his weak ace or T, maybe someone has hit 2-pair, and at best someone might have flopped a set or 3s or Ts. Since there's a flush draw on the board, if someone flopped a set or 2 pair then they're probably going to make a big bet here to discourage people like me from trying to hit that 3rd spade.
SB checks, Nate checks, Villian1 checks, Villian2 checks
# Cool, another free card. I guess the flop either missed everybody, or possibly someone else has a spade flush draw (unlikely, but possible).
Turn: (t2450) 7
(4 players)
# Sweet! Now I'm really hoping that someone has an Ace, maybe 2-pair, or maybe even a smaller flush than mine. It's also possible that someone has the Q or K of spades along with another non-spade card, which means that a fourth spade would make things dangerous.
#Given that I am pretty darn sure that I have the best hand at the moment, I need to bet this - how much? Not so much that everyone's going to instantly fold, but enough so that it's not worth it for someone with that K or Q to call the bet in hopes of hitting the fourth spade. A bit more than half the pot should do it - pot is about 2500, so we'll bet 1500.
SB checks, Nate bets t1500, Villian1 calls t1500, Villian2 raises to t4500, SB calls t4500,
#Well that didn't work out the way I planned. I thought that at least one player would fold and one or two would call or possibly raise. Didn't see this coming. So, what to do?
# Villian1 just called my bet, so I don't think that turn hit him - I'm guessing he either has a flush draw, 2 pair, or maybe just a relatively weak Ace, something like A9. Keep in mind that this guy limped under the gun.
# Villian2 raising really concerns me, because he's indicating that that turn hit him. Best case, he's got a smaller flush or he's making a semi-bluff with the K or Q of spades. Worst case, he's got a better flush than me. Ditto for SB, especially since for him the odds are actually in favor of calling that bet if he has a big flush draw.
# So, what to do? Stats right now:
# Pot: 14500
# My stack: 44629
# Villian1: 61675
# Villian2 and SB both have about the pot size (15k or so) left in their stacks.
# So, possible actions:
# Fold: not gonna happen. If I'm beat by a better flush, so be it, but I really don't think that's happened.
# Call: If I call, then Villian1 is definitely calling behind me, since he'll be getting roughly 4.5:1 odds on his money; there aren't a lot of hands where he wouldn't call that. The big problem with calling is that it gives everybody one more chance to beat me. If someone has the K or Q of spades it gives them a chance on hitting that last spade, and if someone has 2-pair or a set then it gives them a chance of hitting a full house. In any of those scenarios, my opponent has less than a 20% chance of hitting it, and I need to make it not worth it for those folks to keep playing.
# Raise pot (~15k): probably a good option - for Villian2 and SB that's all-in, which they're probably not willing to risk on a draw, but definitely might be willing to risk with 2-pair or a set (which would be very good for me since I have either of those pretty well crushed). However, if Villian1 calls (which he seems to be prone to doing) and the river card is a 3,7,T,A, or a spade, he'll probably be able to take the pot away from me with an all-in bet. If none of those outs fall on the river, he'll obviously have missed, and I won't get any more money out of him. Keep in mind he's got position on me, so if I'm pretty sure I've won on the river, I need to either bet, or check and hope that he bets (and he seems to be playing pretty passively, which means he probably won't bet, and will probably fold if I bet more on the river).
# Raise all-in: puts max pressure to fold on Villian1, and also vastly increases the pot size if Villian1 comes along. My guess is that he'll fold to a shove bet, or else he'll turn over 2-pair or a set, which I currently have crushed. Although I want him to fold, there's an upside if he calls: if everyone calls, the pot becomes about 60k - however, each of my 3 opponents could have a different draw against me - someone could have a set of 7s, someone could have 2-pair, someone could have a flush draw. If any of those hit, then that player is taking the entire pot. However, if Villian1 calls my shove, then he and I have a side-pot which I am most likely going to win.
# So, obviously I'm raising. Let's recap the "how-much question:
# If I raise pot, then we end up having a pretty big pot (somewhere between 30-60k) - if no outs hit then I'm going to win the pot, but it's extremely unlikely that I'll get any more money out of Villian1, and Villian2 and SB will already be all-in
# If I raise all-in, then hopefully I get Villian1 out of the equation, and even if I don't we have a big side pot. In the likely event that I win the whole thing, it also increases my stack to more than 100k, which would put me pretty close to the chip lead in the tournament.
# Sorted. All-in it is!
Nate raises to t44629 (All-In), Villian1 raises to t61675 (All-In), Villian2 calls t15416 (All-In), 1 fold
# Again, not exactly what I expected! But, since everybody's all in, let's turn over the cards:
Nate turns over 8

, J

(flush, Ace high) (80.95% to win).
Villian1 turns over A

, A

(three of a kind, Aces) (16.67% to win).
Villian2 turns over 7

, 7

(three of a kind, sevens) (2.38% to win).
#At this point I'm pretty proud of myself, and relieved that nobody turned over a better flush. I am, however, astounded at the donktacular play of Villian1. Limping UTG with AA? Checking after the flop after hitting a set, with 4 players and a flush draw on the board? Really?
#According to my handy odds calculator, I now have an 81% chance of winning this. Any card that pairs the board gives Villian1 a better hand than me, but as you can see the odds are definitely against that. Poor Villian2 is really SOL - the only card that can give him the win is the last 7 in the deck, otherwise he's done.
River: (t116124) 7
(3 players, 3 all-in)
#Ouch.
Total pot: t116124
Results:
Nate had 8

, J

(flush, Ace high).
Villian1 had A

, A

(full house, Aces over sevens).
Villian2 had 7

, 7

(four of a kind, sevens).
Outcome: Villian1 won t49426, Villian2 won t66698, Nate is out
I started this as a bad-beat story, but then thought that I might as well turn it into a "here's what I was thinking" sort of post. Writing these actually helps me organize my thoughts and analyze my game a little bit, so it's worth it to take the time once in a while. So, a couple of final thoughts:
1) For this one, I'm very happy with the way I played it. If presented with the exact same scenario after the turn, I hope that I would make the exact same all-in raise. If you want to enjoy the game, then you need to be able to say "I made the best play, and if I ended up in the exact same situation again, I'd do it the exact same way. Unfortunately, there is also a big element of luck, and in this case it went against me."
2) WTF is up with fools limping in w/ AA? This is like the 4th or 5th time I've seen this lately. Funnily enough, I've seen the aces get cracked every time except the two times it's been me on the receiving end of the AA limp. Add to that Villian1's lack of post-flop betting / raising, and you realize that you just lost your entire stack and gave the chip lead to a truly awful player. That stings far worse than the bad beat...