I've been on a very bad run of poker lately. It's been impossible to get a read on anybody. Every time I get some playable cards, I encounter raises and re-raises and re-re-raises. Every time I have a monster, everyone folks to my modest raise. My bluffs fail: I go through a lot of trouble to set up a tight image, but then everyone calls my raises, no matter how infrequent they are. Every bet / semi-bluff / bluff I make gets called or raised, despite my telling a beautiful, well-crafted story about exactly what I have. Nobody else's bets make sense; they're folding good hands and pushing all-in with nothing. Add to this a general card-deadness and lack of hitting draws, and you have the recipe for a very bad losing streak.
After about a month of failing, I read this post, which gave me a moment of clarity: I'm thinking too deeply. I'm trying to represent a particular hand or image to folks who aren't even paying attention. When I make that check-call with two hearts on the board, then bet big after the third heart comes in, folks aren't paying attention. Conversely, when I over-bet the pot on a board with two to a flush, folks are calling it with flush draws. Basically, I'm giving everyone too much credit. I mean, in a sense, I knew this already, but it hadn't really registered. So, now I'm back to basics: tight play, sit around and watch the other folks until I get a really good sense of what level they're thinking on. The only problem with this is that the donkeys' money tends to go to other folks who are willing to make questionable calls earlier on in the game. Since making this adjustment, things are going much better. Oddly enough, I now seem to also be getting better cards in better positions - or, maybe now I'm just calling at the right time, after taking the time to carefully analyze how my opponents are playing. At any rate, I'm enjoying it again, and that's what's important. Seriously considering heading down to Salzburg or up to the Spielbanken casino one of these weekends for a session.
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